TrustWorks’ Fragile and Conflict-affected Settings (FCS) Index

TrustWorks has developed and keeps up to date its own index on Fragile and Conflict-affected Settings (FCS). The FCS included in the Index are identified based on two highly recognised and established frameworks:

1. The Rule of Law in Armed Conflicts (RULAC) is an online portal that identifies and classifies all situations of armed violence and is updated regularly. The RULAC classifies international conflict as either: International Armed Conflict (IAC), Non-International Armed Conflict (NIAC) or military occupation.
2. The OECD States of Fragility Framework, which identifies fragile contexts by assessing the risk and coping capacities of countries across 6 dimensions: economic, environmental, human, political, security, and societal. In the latest edition of the framework, published in September 2022, the report identified 60 fragile contexts, with 15 being extremely fragile.

The TrustWorks FCS Index identifies 70 FCS as of 2023. (FCS Index map here)

Ranking:

• The Index ranking system begins with ranking (i.e., putting in order of severity) all classified conflicts: IACs, NIACs, military occupations; and fragile countries.
• The ranking of conflict-affected countries is based on the number of battle-related deaths in the last 5 years as a proxy for levels of insecurity, with the current Index using data from 2018-2022. The data is retrieved from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) database, which is the highest quality and most widely used real-time data and analysis source on political violence.[1]
• Countries that are both classified as conflict-affected and identified as fragile will appear in the conflict-affected section of the Index given that international law governs conflict contexts whereas fragility has no standing in international law, but the risk of instability and violence is heightened.
• Fragile countries are ranked under the conflict-affected countries and in the same order as in the OECD States of Fragility Framework.
• Conflict-affected countries are colored orange and fragile countries are colored yellow.

Exclusion criteria: 

• TrustWorks’ index takes a people-centred approach i.e. what concerns us the most are the lives and livelihoods of these affected by conflict. Countries that are either parties to a conflict or occupying a territory in another country, per the definition from RULAC, are not a part of the TrustWorks’ Index.
  • This is based on the argument that these countries are not classified as being conflict-affected.
  • Russia is not included in our Index as the war in Ukraine is currently classified (by RULAC) as a conflict in Ukraine and not a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
• States occupying territory in another state are not classified as being in conflict, and are, as a result, not included in the Index.
  • For example: Armenia is occupying territory in Azerbaijan, but Armenia is not classified as being affected by conflict, because the conflict itself takes place in Azerbaijan. Companies/investors operating in, sourcing from or investing in these contexts, however, will be subject to laws and other obligations as ‘responsible’ entities regardless of the fact that these are not ‘conflict-affected’ contexts.
• Countries with less than 100 reported fatalities over the last 5 years based on ACLED data are excluded from the Index.

[1] https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard